Intern blog 1 | From attitudes to actions: how public values shape foreign policy

Natalia Vavrekova is a research intern on the UK in the World Values Survey project

In the last few decades, issues of foreign policy have become increasingly salient in the public debate. Matters of trade, security, climate change, global health, and migration are increasingly important in our globalised world, and their effects ever more tangible in daily life. Many of these issues have become increasingly politicised in the public debate, including in the UK, where the 2024 General Election saw parties compete for votes campaigning on topics including migration control, relationships with the European Union, and new approaches to national security.

One of the foundational principles of democracy is that policymakers are responsive to the public, with an expectation that the government will take the opinion of voters seriously. But can people form structured and stable opinions on the complex matters of foreign policy? And how do these matter to policymakers? While initially political scientists thought of foreign policy as a domain where elite cues drive policy decisions and public opinion, newer work increasingly shows public opinion matters to policymakers as they take decisions. 

Contributing to this debate, a report published by researchers at the Policy Institute at King’s College London offers new insights into the evolution of public attitudes on issues including migration, trade, and security, and discusses the role of data on public values and attitudes in international policymaking. The report investigates these questions using data from the World Values Survey (WVS), an international study on global values, attitudes and beliefs running since 1981.

In 2024,  the Policy Institute convened a policy lab with a group of policymakers, researchers, and third-sector voices to share insights on the evolution of public attitudes on these topics and discuss how they can be used to identify new research opportunities and inform policymaking and decision-making. In this blog, we focus on three examples detailing evidence of the relationship between public attitudes and policy positions across countries and in time.

Looking at public attitudes to migration, data from nationally representative survey of 21 countries who participated in WVS between 2017 and 2022 shows a significant association between public attitudes and migration policy. Specifically, people with more positive attitudes toward migration favour more open migration policies, and countries where the public favour more open immigration policies are also countries that have more open immigration policy approaches. Still, other country characteristics, such as wealth, are also important.

Secondly, when it comes to trade, there is a significant correlation between the degree of value alignment with the UK and other countries worldwide, and the countries’ trade volumes. This shows that values and norms do influence the choice of international trade partners and affect trade policies. Evidence also shows that other factors matter more than attitudinal alignment, including geographical distance and shared histories, such as whether the country was a former colony.

Thirdly, looking at the 2022 UN Resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, researchers found that a country’s values and attitudes are reflected in the voting records. Compared to countries voting in favour of the Resolution, the public in countries that either abstained from or opposed it showed greater worries about domestic security, held more traditional and survival-based values and placed less importance on personal autonomy. Overall, countries with strong secular and self-expression values were more likely to vote in favour of the Resolution, however differences in the strength of democracy are a strong predictor of voting patterns, as well as how liberal the country is.

These findings highlight how important it is to consider values and attitudes in understanding international decision-making and trade patterns. As highlighted by the policy lab participants, this is especially true in increasingly contested and politicised challenges facing the UK. Participants identified three key areas where data can be used in policymaking.

It can inform policymakers’ choices and approaches and provide important contextual information influencing their willingness to take political actions. Additionally, data and insights on public values and attitudes can play a role in informing public communications when policies are adopted. They are a useful justification for the political choices made. Equally, we cannot forget the influence of personal values and attitudes of policymakers on their decisions and approaches. These were considered especially challenging when diverging from those of the public.

In moments of growing global insecurity, with the US imposing sweeping trade tariffs, war in Ukraine, and the conflict in Gaza to name just a few, topics of migration, trade and security are becoming all the more important. Global issues do affect domestic policies – in a globalised world, it’s rarely possible to separate the two. To better navigate the public debate, policymakers can benefit from the new evidence included in this report.